PART 1.
Let me make one thing clear: I am not a Statistician/Mathematician. I try to stick to specific
principles when discussing TOPICS SUCH AS MORAL THEORY, POLITICS, THE LEGAL SYSTEM, RELIGION, AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. USING THE DISCIPLINES OF LOGIC AND CRITICAL THINKING, I TRY TO AVOID USING NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES TO MAKE A POINT. I BELIEVE THAT CONFLICTS ARISING IN THESE SUBJECTS SHOULD NEVER BE DECIDED ON THE NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS WHO HAPPEN TO FALL ON ONE SIDE OF AN ISSUE. I USE NUMBERS TO SUPPORT AN OPINION, NOT MAKE ONE.
However, the Election Totals have, for me, raised a serious red flag. These Numbers make little sense, and a COMPREHENSIVE STUDY/INVESTIGATION NEEDS TO BE DONE. NOW.
Here is how I came to this opinion;
Numbers FOR MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, AND WISCONSIN- The 2012, 2016 Presidential Elections.
IN 2016 HILLARY CLINTON WON THE TOTAL POPULAR VOTE BY ABOUT 3 MILLION VOTES, AND PERCENT OF TOTAL. 48.1%- 46%. THE MEDIA REPORTS THESE NUMBERS FREQUENTLY. HOWEVER, HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS THAT ARE RARELY MENTIONED, IF AT ALL.
2008- Winner: BARACK OBAMA.
NUMBERS;52.9% of the Vote. Total Votes- 69,498,516. 365 Electoral Votes.Carried-28 States+DC.
Opponent- JOHN MCCAIN.
NUMBERS;45.7%. of the Vote. Total Votes- 59,948,323. 173 Electoral Votes.Carried-22 States.
2012- Winner: BARACK OBAMA.
NUMBERS;51.1% of the Vote. Total Votes- 65,915,795. 332 Electoral Votes.Carried-26 States+DC.
Opponent- MITT ROMNEY.
NUMBERS; 47.2% of the Vote. Total Votes- 60,933,504. 206 Electoral Votes.Carried- 24 States.
2016- Winner: DONALD TRUMP.
NUMBERS;46% of Vote. Total Votes- 62,979,636. 306 Electoral Votes. Carried.- 30 States.
Opponent- HILLARY CLINTON.
NUMBERS;48.1% of Vote. Total Votes- 65,844, 610. 232 Electoral Votes.- 20 States+DC.
OBSERVATION 1- IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF VOTE, MITT ROMNEY HAD A HIGHER
PERCENT THAN DONALD TRUMP. 47.2% to 46%.
OBSERVATION 2- BARACK OBAMA % OF TOTAL VOTES IN 2008 AND 2012 WAS OVER 50%, (52.9%, 51.1%), YET DONALD TRUMP, WITH 46%, CARRIED MORE STATES (30) THAN BARACK OBAMA DID IN EITHER ELECTION. (28,26).
OBSERVATION 3.
WISCONSIN- IN 2012, A TOTAL OF 3,028,651 VOTES WERE CAST FOR BOTH THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. IN 2016 THAT NUMBER
REDUCED TO 2,787,820, OR -240,831.
WHILE THE REPUBLICAN NUMBERS WERE VERY CLOSE
2012 TOTAL- 1,407,966 TO 2016-1,405,289 FOR A TOTAL REDUCTION OF 2,677 VOTES.
THE DEMOCRATS TOTALS WERE- 2012 TOTAL- 1,620,985 TO 2016 TOTAL- 1,382,536
OR A REDUCTION OF 238,449.
OBSERVATION 4.
PENNSYLVANIA- 2012 ELECTION- TOTAL DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN VOTES- 5,670,708.
2016 TOTAL- 5,897,174. A DIFFERENCE OF +226,466.
DEMOCRATS- 2012 TOTAL VOTES: 2,990,274 2016 TOTAL VOTES- 2,926,441= LOSS OF 63,833.
REPUBLICANS- 2012 TOTAL VOTES- 2,680,434 2016 TOTAL VOTES- 2,970,733= +290,299.
OBSERVATION 5.
MICHIGAN- 2012 TOTAL DEM/REP. VOTES: 4,679,825.
BREAKDOWN- 2,564,569 DEMOCRAT, 2,115,256 REPUBLICAN.
MICHIGAN- 2016 TOTAL DEM/REP. VOTES- 4,548,382.
BREAKDOWN- REPUBLICANS- 2,279,543
DEMOCRATS- 2,268,839
A REDUCTION OF 131,443 TOTAL VOTES BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.
DEMOCRATS- LOST 295,730 VOTES BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.
REPUBLICANS- GAINED 164,287.
REMEMBER, THESE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN ALL THREE STATES OCCURRED FOR A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WHOSE % OF TOTAL VOTES NATIONWIDE WAS LESS THAN
HIS PREDECESSOR. FURTHER, THE NUMBER OF VOTERS CASTING THEIR BALLOTS FOR EITHER THE DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS WENT DOWN IN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.
TO BE CONTINUED...?
THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION- SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG. PART 2.
Don't get me wrong, these allegations are not to be taken lightly, and should be Investigated thoroughly, but they are only part of the story.
In part 1 , I laid out statistics that raise questions about the Validity of the election results in 3 States; MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, AND WISCONSIN. These States, and their Electoral Votes,
is where the outcome of the election rested. We will look at these results more closely, but first...
A LITTLE MORE BACKGROUND INFO.
As I related in Part 1, Hillary Clinton won the Popular Vote by about 3 Million Votes, (2.87 Million). In the end, her percentage of the National Vote was 48.06% to Trumps 45.97%. TOTALS: CLINTON- 65,844,610, TRUMP- 62,979,636.
It is True that Trump accumulated 2.05 Million more votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
However, there were almost 8 Million more votes cast for President in 2016 than there were in 2012.
(2012- 129,085,409 2016- 137,045,863)
This is why Trumps 45.97% was less than Romneys 47.20%.
However, there were almost 8 Million more votes cast for President in 2016 than there were in 2012.
(2012- 129,085,409 2016- 137,045,863)
This is why Trumps 45.97% was less than Romneys 47.20%.
Yes, Hillary Clinton did not get as many votes as Barack Obama did in 2012.
Here is the difference: Obama- 65,915,795, Clinton- 65,844,610. A Difference of 71,185 Votes.
These Numbers, in practical terms, are a wash. The Difference is so miniscule, that the totals
would be considered one and the same. Like Romney/Trump, the increase in the total number of ballots from 2012- 2016 caused the difference in Percent of Votes Received Nationwide.
2012: Obama- 51.06%
2016: Clinton- 48.06%
So between 2012 and 2016, the Democrats saw a Decrease of 3%, the Republicans 1.23%
In the end, the Republicans increased their Percentage of the National Vote by less than 2%
These are hardly the Numbers of a POLITICAL REVOLUTION. IN REALITY, THERE WAS
NO REAL REJECTION OF HILLARY CLINTON, NOR A VAST AMOUNT OF INCREASED SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICANS BECAUSE OF DONALD TRUMP.
THIS IS NOT THE REAL STORY. THE REALITY OF THE 2016 ELECTION LIES ELSEWHERE...
STAY TUNED...
These Numbers, in practical terms, are a wash. The Difference is so miniscule, that the totals
would be considered one and the same. Like Romney/Trump, the increase in the total number of ballots from 2012- 2016 caused the difference in Percent of Votes Received Nationwide.
2012: Obama- 51.06%
2016: Clinton- 48.06%
So between 2012 and 2016, the Democrats saw a Decrease of 3%, the Republicans 1.23%
In the end, the Republicans increased their Percentage of the National Vote by less than 2%
These are hardly the Numbers of a POLITICAL REVOLUTION. IN REALITY, THERE WAS
NO REAL REJECTION OF HILLARY CLINTON, NOR A VAST AMOUNT OF INCREASED SUPPORT FOR REPUBLICANS BECAUSE OF DONALD TRUMP.
THIS IS NOT THE REAL STORY. THE REALITY OF THE 2016 ELECTION LIES ELSEWHERE...
STAY TUNED...
Now, you might might be thinking: "Well, what about the other States? I bet there were big changes elsewhere, and your just ignoring them."
Keep in mind that I have been focusing on MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, AND WISCONSIN, BECAUSE OF THEIR IMPORTANCE IN DETERMINING VICTORY IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. HOWEVER, I HAVE PURPOSEFULLY AVOIDED 3 OTHER STATES; FLORIDA, IOWA, AND OHIO, JUST TO SEE IF I WOULD GET ANY REACTION. I DID'NT, SO IN A FUTURE POST THE ANALYSIS WILL INCLUDE THESE STATES, BECAUSE OF THEIR IMPORTANCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THE 2016 ELECTION.
However, there are 44 other States. How did the TRUMP "REVOLUTION" AFFECT THEM?
Well, this was suppose to be a resurgence of "CONSERVATIVE IDEALS." In fact, Donald Trump
ran on A Mix of EXTREMIST BELIEFS THAT PROMOTED MISOGYNISTIC, XENOPHOBIC, AND RACIST ATTITUDES AMONG THE GENERAL PUBLIC, OFTEN UNDER A MASK OF RELIGIOUS ZEALOTRY. HOWEVER, THESE ATTITUDES AND BELIEFS SHOULD NOT BE ASSIGNED TO EVERY INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP JUST BECAUSE THEY MAY DISAGREE WITH PROGRESSIVE/LIBERAL IDEALS. TRUMP WENT FAR BEYOND WHAT TRUE CONSERVATIVES BELIEVE.
To be fair, let us start by looking at the 24 States who voted REPUBLICAN IN 2012 AND 2016.
Now, with Traditionally Blue States like MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, AND WISCONSIN SEEING GIGANTIC SHIFTS IN VOTER SUPPORT, RESULTING IN REPUBLICAN "VICTORIES", TRADITIONALLY RED STATES SHOULD HAVE SEEN EVEN LARGER TURNOUTS AND TRIUMPHS IN THEIR STATE ELECTIONS.
Uh, No.
In the case of the 24 States, TRUMP CARRIED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE IN 12 STATES, ROMNEY IN 11, WITH ONE STATISTICAL TIE.
This is a list of every STATE that Voted for the Republican Candidate for President in 2012 and 2016.
It is followed by which Candidate, ( ROMNEY- 2012, TRUMP- 2016), Received a higher % of the Republican Vote for that State.
ALABAMA- TRUMP: 62.08%.- 60.55%
ALASKA- ROMNEY: 54.80%- 51.28%
ARIZONA- ROMNEY: 53.65%- 48.67%
ARKANSAS- TIE- 60.57%
GEORGIA- ROMNEY: 53.30%- 50.77%
IDAHO- ROMNEY: 64.53%- 59.26%
INDIANA- TRUMP: 56.82%- 54.13%
KANSAS- ROMNEY: 59.71%- 56.65%
KENTUCKY- TRUMP: 62.5%- 60.49%
LOUISIANA- TRUMP: 58.09%- 57.78%
MISSISSIPPI- TRUMP: 57.94%- 55.28%
MISSOURI- TRUMP: 56.77%- 53.76%
MONTANA- TRUMP: 56.17%- 55.35%
NEBRASKA- ROMNEY: 59.80%- 58.75%
NORTH CAROLINA- ROMNEY: 50.39%- 49.83%
NORTH DAKOTA- TRUMP: 62.96%- 58.32%
OKLAHOMA- ROMNEY: 66.77%- 65.32%
SOUTH CAROLINA- TRUMP: 54.94%- 54.56%
SOUTH DAKOTA- TRUMP: 61.53%- 57.89%
TENNESSEE- TRUMP: 60.72%- 59.48%
TEXAS- ROMNEY: 57.17%- 52.23%
UTAH- ROMNEY: 72.79%- 45.54%
WEST VIRGINIA- TRUMP: 68.63%- 62.30%
WYOMING- ROMNEY: 68.64- 67.40%
UTAHS LARGE MARGIN BETWEEN
2012- 72.79%, 2016- 45.54% COULD HAVE BEEN CAUSED
BY THE 21.54% EARNED BY EVAN MCMULLEN (IND.)
IN 2016.
In the other 23 States, the LARGEST INCREASE in percent of the vote from
2012 ----- 2016: WEST VIRGINIA: + 6.33%.
THE LARGEST DECREASE 2012-----2016: IDAHO: - 5.27%.
REMEMBER THESE ARE "RED STATES." THERE ARE NO CHANGES,
STATISTICALLY, THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED BEYOND NORMAL
PARAMETERS. DONALD TRUMPS CANDIDACY CAUSED NO UNUSUAL
CHANGES IN THE % OF PRO-REPUBLICAN VOTERS WHO TURNED OUT
FOR THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
HMMM!
THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION- SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG. PART 4.
Now that we have seen the % of Vote Totals when examining the results of the 24 states that voted Republican in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections, let us now turn to the 20 States that voted Democrat, and see how the REPUBLICAN PARTY PERFORMED.
HERE ARE THE REPUBLICAN PARTIES % OF TOTAL VOTES FROM THESE STATE ELECTION RETURNS.
STATE 2012 2016
CALIFORNIA. 37.12 % 31.62%
COLORADO. 46.13% 43.25%
CONNECTICUT. 40.73% 40.93%
DELAWARE. 39.98% 41.92%
HAWAII. 27.84% 29.44%
ILLINOIS. 40.73% 38.73%
MAINE. 40.98% 44.87%
MARYLAND. 35.90% 33.91%
MASSACHUSETTS. 37.51% 32.81%
MINNESOTA. 44.96% 44.92%
NEVADA. 45.68% 45.50%
NEW HAMPSHIRE. 46.40% 46.61%
NEW JERSEY. 40.59% 41.00%
NEW MEXICO. 42.84% 40.04%
NEW YORK. 35.17% 36.15%
OREGON. 42.15% 39.09%
RHODE ISLAND. 35.24% 38.90%
VERMONT. 30.97% 29.76%
VIRGINIA. 47.28% 44.43%
WASHINGTON. 41.29% 38.07%
From this list we find the following:
That Republican Party % of the Statewide Vote was
as follows:
12 States had a higher % of the Republican Vote in 2012. (MITT ROMNEY.)
8 States had a higher % of the Republican Vote in 2016. (DONALD TRUMP.)
These numbers provide more Insight in Evaluating the Degree to which
Donald Trumps Candidacy influenced the outcome of the 2016 election.
EXAMINING THE RESULTS OF THE 20 STATES THAT VOTED DEMOCRAT
FOR PRESIDENT IN 2012 AND 2016, WE ALSO FIND THAT;
THE BIGGEST GAIN FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BETWEEN 2012-2016:
MAINE, 40.98%- 44.87%, OR AN INCREASE OF 3.89%
THE BIGGEST LOSS: CALIFORNIA- 37.12%- 31.62% OR A DECREASE OF 5.5%
In Fact, if we take all 44 States together: 24 States that Voted Republican, and the 20 that Voted
Democrat in both the 2012 and 2016 Elections:
In 23 States the Republicans had better results with Mitt Romney as the Candidate.*
In 20 States they had better results with Donald Trump as the Candidate.*
1 Statistical Tie.*
* % of VOTES FOR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN EACH STATE.
It is clear, from these numbers, that the claim of Donald Trump mobilizing vast numbers of
dissatisfied Voters to go the polls does not hold up, at least from the results of the 44 States that Voted either DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN IN BOTH ELECTIONS.
However, was the "OUTCOME" OF THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DETERMINED
BY THE RESULTS FOUND IN THE 6 STATES THAT VOTED REPUBLICAN IN 2016,
SHIFTING THEIR SUPPORT FROM THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THEY SUPPORTED
IN 2012.
How important are these 6 States? You need 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency. Here are
the Electoral Votes for these States; FLORIDA- 29, PENNSYLVANIA- 20, OHIO- 18,
MICHIGAN- 16, WISCONSIN- 10, IOWA- 6.
Now that we have seen the results from the other 44 States, what do the NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT
THE RESULTS IN THESE STATES? ARE THERE "IRREGULARITIES" THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED? SHOULD THE RESULTS FROM ANY, SOME, OR ALL OF THESE STATES BE CALLED INTO QUESTION?
TO BE CONTINUED...
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