THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION- SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG. PART 4.

Now that we have seen the % of Vote Totals when examining the results of the 24 states that voted Republican in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections, let us now turn to the 20 States that voted Democrat, and see how the REPUBLICAN PARTY PERFORMED.

HERE ARE THE REPUBLICAN PARTIES % OF TOTAL VOTES FROM THESE STATE ELECTION RETURNS.

STATE                                           2012                                   2016

CALIFORNIA.                            37.12 %                              31.62%  

COLORADO.                              46.13%                               43.25%

CONNECTICUT.                        40.73%                                40.93%

DELAWARE.                              39.98%                                41.92%

HAWAII.                                     27.84%                                29.44%

ILLINOIS.                                  40.73%                                 38.73%

MAINE.                                      40.98%                                  44.87%

MARYLAND.                              35.90%                                 33.91%

MASSACHUSETTS.                   37.51%                                 32.81%

MINNESOTA.                            44.96%                                  44.92%

NEVADA.                                   45.68%                                  45.50%

                          

NEW HAMPSHIRE.                    46.40%                                  46.61%

NEW JERSEY.                           40.59%                                  41.00%

NEW MEXICO.                         42.84%                                  40.04%

NEW YORK.                             35.17%                                  36.15%

OREGON.                                42.15%                                  39.09%

RHODE ISLAND.                     35.24%                                  38.90%

VERMONT.                              30.97%                                  29.76%

VIRGINIA.                               47.28%                                  44.43%

WASHINGTON.                       41.29%                                 38.07%

From this list we find the following:

That Republican Party % of the Statewide Vote was

as follows:

12 States had a higher % of the Republican Vote in 2012. (MITT ROMNEY.)

 8 States had a higher % of the Republican Vote in 2016.  (DONALD TRUMP.)

These numbers provide more Insight in Evaluating the Degree to which

Donald Trumps Candidacy influenced the outcome of the 2016 election.

EXAMINING THE RESULTS OF THE 20 STATES THAT VOTED DEMOCRAT

FOR PRESIDENT IN 2012 AND 2016, WE ALSO FIND THAT;

THE BIGGEST GAIN FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BETWEEN 2012-2016:

MAINE,  40.98%- 44.87%, OR AN INCREASE OF 3.89%

THE BIGGEST LOSS: CALIFORNIA- 37.12%- 31.62% OR A DECREASE OF 5.5%

In Fact, if we take all 44 States together: 24 States that Voted Republican, and the 20 that Voted

Democrat in both the 2012 and 2016 Elections:

In 23 States the Republicans had better results with Mitt Romney as the Candidate.*

In 20 States they had better results with Donald Trump as the Candidate.*

  1 Statistical Tie.*

* %  of  VOTES FOR REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN EACH STATE.

It is clear, from these numbers, that the claim of Donald Trump mobilizing vast numbers of

dissatisfied Voters to go the polls does not hold up, at least from the results of the 44 States that Voted either DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN IN BOTH ELECTIONS.

However, was the "OUTCOME" OF THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DETERMINED

BY THE RESULTS FOUND IN THE 6 STATES THAT VOTED REPUBLICAN IN 2016,

SHIFTING THEIR SUPPORT FROM THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THEY SUPPORTED

IN 2012.

How important are these 6 States? You need 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency. Here are

the Electoral Votes for these States; FLORIDA- 29, PENNSYLVANIA- 20, OHIO- 18,

MICHIGAN- 16, WISCONSIN- 10, IOWA- 6.

Now that we have seen the results from the other 44 States, what do the NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT

THE RESULTS IN THESE STATES?  ARE THERE "IRREGULARITIES" THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED?  SHOULD THE RESULTS FROM ANY, SOME, OR ALL OF THESE STATES BE CALLED INTO QUESTION?

TO BE CONTINUED...

LOGIC. FAULTY LOGIC, AND GETTING ELECTED.

This post could just as easily have been published on A PAGE DEALING WITH ELECTION ISSUES. However, it does deal with Invalid and Faulty Arguments that violate the rules of Logic and Critical Thinking. So I have placed it here.

How many of us have run into the line of reasoning, that the following are examples of;

-  "IF WE PASS GUN CONTROL LAWS, THEN ONLY THE CROOKS WILL HAVE GUNS."

-  " ALLOWING IMMIGRANTS INTO THE U.S. WILL RESULT IN DISEASES LIKE EBOLA SPREADING ACROSS THE COUNTRY."

"GAY MARRIAGE BEING MADE LEGAL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF CHILD MOLESTATION AND BESTIALITY BECAUSE NO SEXUAL ACTS ARE AGAINST THE LAW ANYMORE."

These are all examples of:

THE FALLACY OF ASSUMING THE CONSEQUENCE-  WHEN YOU ASSERT THAT A GIVEN ACTION WILL AUTOMATICALLY RESULT IN A SPECIFIC CONSEQUENCE.  THIS IS DONE WITHOUT ANY REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT ONE NECESSARILY FOLLOWS THE OTHER.

Problem #1-  It Assumes Facts, not in Evidence-  There is no foundation for one to conclude that creating guidelines for Gun Ownership, Entry into the U.S. for Foreign Nationals, or Legalizing Same Sex Marriage, would result in the predictions claimed in the above examples coming true.

-  Gun Control does NOT MEAN GUN ELIMINATION.  Legal ownership is not prevented by law.

-  Medical Evaluations are part of gaining Legal Refugee Status. Further,  There is no evidence that foreign nationals are any more or less likely to be infected with any contagious diseases that are found inside the U.S.

-  The Legalization of Gender Identical Marriage does not create blanket amnesty for anyone engaging in sexual acts already prohibited by law. 

Problem #2-  Claiming a Causal Relationship, where one doesn't exist.

-  Many Laws on the Books inside the U.S. allow all Americans to earn or receive licenses required to legally own and/or operate certain Mechanical Devices such as Vehicles, Construction Equipment , Medical Diagnostic Tools etc. Requiring someone to have the Knowledge, Ability and Mental Capacity to operate such things are not considered intrusions into Individual Rights and Freedoms.  There is no precedent that Firearms would be treated any differently.

-  The Idea that Citizens of other Countries are not properly Immunized compared to American Citizens is not always true, especially if we are speaking about those who are from Nations in North, South or Central America.  It is an amazing comparison, considering the number of irrational exemptions inside the U.S., that allow a parent not to have a child immunized.

-  That the idea of Same- Sex Married couples being so different from Hetero-Sexual ones, that legalization of such unions will cause a complete breakdown of Sexual Mores within the U.S. is without any rational foundation. There is not one shred of credible evidence that such a result is even possible. 

I guess it leaves us with Two basic types of Candidates for elected office:

The Candidate who wants you to fear the opposition before you vote, or

The Candidate who wants you to understand the opposition before you vote.

THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION- SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG. PART 1.

   

Let me make one thing clear: I am not a Statistician/Mathematician. I try to stick to specific

principles when discussing TOPICS SUCH AS MORAL THEORY, POLITICS, THE LEGAL SYSTEM, RELIGION, AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. USING THE DISCIPLINES OF LOGIC AND CRITICAL THINKING, I TRY TO AVOID USING NUMBERS AND PERCENTAGES TO MAKE A POINT. I BELIEVE THAT CONFLICTS ARISING IN THESE SUBJECTS SHOULD NEVER BE DECIDED ON THE NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS WHO HAPPEN TO FALL ON ONE SIDE OF AN ISSUE.  I USE NUMBERS TO SUPPORT AN OPINION, NOT MAKE ONE.

However, the Election Totals have, for me, raised a serious red flag. These Numbers make little sense, and a COMPREHENSIVE STUDY/INVESTIGATION NEEDS TO BE DONE. NOW.

Here is how I came to this opinion;

Numbers FOR MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, AND WISCONSIN-  The 2012, 2016 Presidential Elections.

IN 2016 HILLARY CLINTON WON THE TOTAL POPULAR VOTE BY ABOUT 3 MILLION VOTES, AND PERCENT OF TOTAL. 48.1%- 46%. THE MEDIA REPORTS THESE NUMBERS FREQUENTLY. HOWEVER, HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS THAT ARE RARELY MENTIONED, IF AT ALL.

2008- Winner: BARACK OBAMA.
NUMBERS;52.9% of the Vote. Total Votes-  69,498,516. 365 Electoral Votes.Carried-28 States+DC.

Opponent- JOHN MCCAIN.
NUMBERS;45.7%. of the Vote. Total Votes- 59,948,323. 173 Electoral Votes.Carried-22 States.


2012- Winner:  BARACK OBAMA.
NUMBERS;51.1% of the Vote. Total Votes- 65,915,795. 332 Electoral Votes.Carried-26 States+DC.

Opponent- MITT ROMNEY.
NUMBERS; 47.2% of the Vote.  Total Votes- 60,933,504. 206 Electoral Votes.Carried- 24 States.

2016- Winner: DONALD TRUMP.
NUMBERS;46% of Vote.  Total Votes-  62,979,636.  306 Electoral Votes. Carried.- 30 States.

Opponent- HILLARY CLINTON.
NUMBERS;48.1% of Vote.  Total Votes- 65,844, 610. 232 Electoral Votes.- 20 States+DC.

OBSERVATION 1- IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF VOTE, MITT ROMNEY HAD A HIGHER
PERCENT THAN DONALD TRUMP. 47.2% to 46%.

OBSERVATION 2-  BARACK OBAMA % OF TOTAL VOTES IN 2008 AND 2012 WAS OVER 50%, (52.9%, 51.1%), YET DONALD TRUMP, WITH 46%, CARRIED MORE STATES (30) THAN BARACK OBAMA DID IN EITHER ELECTION. (28,26).

OBSERVATION 3.
WISCONSIN- IN 2012, A TOTAL OF 3,028,651 VOTES WERE CAST FOR BOTH THE DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. IN 2016 THAT NUMBER REDUCED TO 2,787,820, OR -240,831.

WHILE THE REPUBLICAN NUMBERS WERE VERY CLOSE
2012 TOTAL- 1,407,966 TO 2016-1,405,289 FOR A TOTAL REDUCTION OF 2,677 VOTES.

THE DEMOCRATS TOTALS WERE- 2012 TOTAL- 1,620,985 TO 2016 TOTAL- 1,382,536
OR A REDUCTION OF 238,449.

OBSERVATION 4.
PENNSYLVANIA- 2012 ELECTION- TOTAL DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN VOTES- 5,670,708.
2016 TOTAL- 5,897,174. A DIFFERENCE OF +226,466.
DEMOCRATS- 2012 TOTAL VOTES: 2,990,274 2016 TOTAL VOTES- 2,926,441= LOSS OF 63,833.
REPUBLICANS- 2012 TOTAL VOTES- 2,680,434 2016 TOTAL VOTES- 2,970,733= +290,299.

OBSERVATION 5.
MICHIGAN- 2012 TOTAL DEM/REP. VOTES: 4,679,825.
BREAKDOWN- 2,564,569 DEMOCRAT, 2,115,256 REPUBLICAN.

MICHIGAN- 2016 TOTAL DEM/REP. VOTES- 4,548,382.
BREAKDOWN- REPUBLICANS- 2,279,543
                    DEMOCRATS- 2,268,839
A REDUCTION OF 131,443 TOTAL VOTES BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.

DEMOCRATS- LOST 295,730 VOTES BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.
REPUBLICANS- GAINED 164,287.

REMEMBER, THESE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN ALL THREE STATES OCCURRED FOR A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WHOSE % OF TOTAL VOTES NATIONWIDE WAS LESS THAN HIS PREDECESSOR. FURTHER, THE NUMBER OF VOTERS CASTING THEIR BALLOTS FOR EITHER THE DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS WENT DOWN IN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2012 AND 2016.

TO BE CONTINUED...?

WHAT A SHAME- A look at the low points in the modern media. PSEUDOSCIENCE ON TELEVISION- LOGIC AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD NEED NOT APPLY. PT 5.

The real danger of Pseudoscience on Television, is not the Creators, Producers, and Hosts.  I don't expect much from them, they are in the business of presenting a show that will bring in the highest ratings. 

Truth, to them, is a negotiable item.

Increasing Profits often means decreasing the credibility of what is placed on the air.

To that end, tuning into these shows is often a pointless exercise in the belief that something of real Scientific Significance will occur.  Since their Research Methodology is usually highly flawed, if present at all, they feel no need to even hide the lack of professionalism.  What you are left with is sixty minutes of figures running around pointing fingers and cameras at Shapes, Lights and Unknown Phenomena, that in the end, provide no real evidence of anything.

That is the key to their success.  You have fifty minutes of build- up, that emphasizes the tension that, "We are on the verge of a Breakthrough, its just a few minutes away."  In the end, you are left with ten minutes of excuses, and reasons why answers are elusive.  Even more bogus, is the assertion that "This episode provides more evidence that we are on the right track, adding more credibility that ---------------- really do exist."

Sorry, but a pile of manure won't turn into a pot of gold, no matter how high you build it.

In other words, Invalid and Irrational evidence is worthless, because more doesn't equal better.

This leaves us with the following, the true dangers of Pseudoscience on Television:

-  The Lack of Balance, with little in the way of On- Air Criticism to refute what is presented and asserted on these shows.

-  The Presentation of the "SCIENTIFIC METHOD" in such a way that is completely opposite to the Rules and Methods that are at its core. 

-  That Teachers and Parents don't realize the danger, so children are left with the idea they these shows are valuable and true to life. 

See PT 6.